Within three years, governments at all levels are expected to invest 850 billion yuan for medical and health system reform. These 850 billion yuan are incremental, and split into 300 billion yuan, 300 billion yuan and 250 billion yuan.
Government investment is mainly in three categories: medical insurance subsidies, that is, subsidies for urban residents and new rural cooperative medical insurance, about 390 billion yuan; public health about 60 billion yuan; and various medical institutions will usher in 400 billion yuan.
General medicine and basic medical equipment will be the biggest beneficiaries of medical reform in the next three years.
After more than five months of public consultation and revision, the State Council officially announced the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Deepening the Reform of the Medical and Health System" (the final draft of the new medical reform plan). According to the new medical reform plan, the next three years will support medical reform For five key reforms, governments at all levels need to invest 850 billion yuan. This is a huge new investment.
The 850 billion yuan investment is undoubtedly the most eye-catching part of the medical reform plan. This investment will be mainly reflected in three aspects: for medical insurance subsidies, that is, to subsidize urban residents and the new rural cooperative medical insurance, etc., about 390 billion yuan; public health About 60 billion yuan; about 400 billion yuan for various medical institutions. Some analysts believe that the three-year investment of 850 billion yuan should be a base, the actual number may exceed expectations.
In addition to financial investment, the medical reform plan shows the government's attitude towards steadily increasing investment in medical and health undertakings. For medical manufacturing, retail and medical services, the opportunities and impacts brought by medical reform are different.
Pharmaceutical manufacturing: hidden opportunities
Medical reform plan mentioned that it is necessary to "preliminarily establish a national essential medicine system; establish a scientific and rational selection and adjustment mechanism for essential medicines and a supply guarantee system."
In this regard, Wang Shaohua, general manager of Hangzhou Zhencheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., the first B2B company with Internet drug trading qualification in the country, believes: "Community medical care vigorously implemented by the new medical reform must use 100% of the drugs in the essential drug list. Therefore, the first beneficiary medicine The manufacturing enterprises will be those with the approval for the production of essential medicines. Not only that, the plan also mentions that the state will implement bidding for fixed-point production of essential medicines, which means that even if there is an approval, they must obtain the qualification for fixed-point production."
He believes that, based on the above factors, large state-owned pharmaceutical companies will usher in the best historical development opportunities in this round of medical reform. At the same time, those manufacturing companies that have entered the list of essential medicines and have exclusive approvals are even bigger winners. "And due to the volume of essential medicines, objectively it will also have a certain impact on medicines that are not listed in the essential medicines list. Therefore, in the future, there may be a large number of orders from designated manufacturers, and their own production capacity cannot keep up, so through mergers , Acquisitions and other ways to expand production capacity, and eventually there will be an increase in industry concentration." Wang Shaohua told reporters.
Many powerful pharmaceutical companies also believe that for them, the new medical reform undoubtedly hides opportunities.
"This means that the state has strengthened the management of medicines. In this case, homogenized products will lack a competitive advantage, and the competitiveness of branded products will be highlighted." Zhao Jianghua, vice president in charge of medicine of Huali Group In an interview with a reporter, I analyzed and said.
Huali Group owns 3 pharmaceutical listed companies, Huali Pharmaceutical (000607SZ), Kunming Pharmaceutical (600422SH), and Wuhan Jianmin (600976SH), and has maintained a world leading level in the production and research and development of artemisinin and its derivatives. At the same time, it also owns famous brand medicines including "Longmu Zhuanggu Granules" and "Jianmin Throat Tablets".
Because of its advantages in technology and brand, Zhao Jianghua believes that this medical reform is "a good thing for Huali". "At present, we have already applied for four or five products in the national essential medicine catalogue. After approval in the future, the sales of these medicines will have a greater increase." Zhao Jianghua said.
Because of the good prospects for the pharmaceutical industry, in recent years, Huali Group's investment in medicine has increased year by year, and the performance of its pharmaceutical companies has also continued to increase. Taking Wuhan Jianmin as an example, according to the 2008 annual performance pre-announcement announcement, the company's 2008 annual net profit is expected to increase by 100%. It is understood that under the background of good performance returns and good medical reform, Huali Group will also increase its investment in the market and brand of medicine in 2009, "especially intensify its work in the field of designated production qualifications for basic medicine catalogs, and control costs. , Improve quality and enhance influence." Zhao Jianghua told reporters.
Pharmaceutical retail: confusing
However, in the face of the medical reform plan, the fate of pharmaceutical retail companies seems to be more confusing.
Regarding the change of the traditional “medicine-based medicine” model in public hospitals, a person familiar with the matter revealed that the “dropping point” of reforming the compensation mechanism in public hospitals was to reform the drug bonus policy, that is, to cancel the 15% drug bonus policy. The hospital's reduced income or resulting losses can be resolved through three ways, namely, the establishment of pharmaceutical service fees, the adjustment of some technical service charge standards, and the increase of government investment to solve.
The straightforward information disclosed is that with the gradual change of "using medicine to raise medicine", the price of medicines in public hospitals will likely be lowered significantly. For the pharmaceutical retail industry, this is bound to have a certain impact.
"Taking our company as an example, some of our pharmacies are located next to the hospital, and the business is quite good. The reason is that many patients think that the hospital's drugs are expensive. After seeing the disease, they directly take a prescription to the pharmacy to buy drugs." Jianfeng Pharmacy Chain Co., Ltd. General Manager Yuan Jie said. Once the price of medicine in the hospital is similar to that of retail pharmacies, patients are likely to choose to dispense medicine directly in the hospital.
In this regard, Ying Jie, general manager of Hangzhou East China Pharmacy Chain Co., Ltd. also told reporters: After the introduction of the medical reform plan, the company often held meetings to discuss the possible impact of the medical reform on the pharmaceutical retail industry.
In fact, due to the opening of Hangzhou's medical insurance, Hangzhou East China Pharmacy Chain Co., Ltd. increased sales by about 30% and profit growth by about 40-50% during the economic downturn last year. "The pharmaceutical industry itself has experienced an inertial growth over the past few years, which can basically be around 10-15% per year." Ying Jie said.
For medical reform, he believes that although there may be some impact, but with the "division of medicine", it also contains many opportunities. For example, if the company has the opportunity to enter the hospital system, it can develop some pharmacy custody services. "However, since the relevant specific policies have not been finalized yet, it is too early to interpret them." Ying Jie also said.
Similar views are also given by Zhang Qianming, Chairman of Jinhua Jiudetang Pharmaceutical Chain Co., Ltd.: "The implementation of the "medical division" should generally have a certain positive significance for the pharmaceutical retail industry. However, since the policy has not been specifically introduced, the following The one-step situation is still difficult to predict."
"Under the premise of ensuring the supply of essential medicines, the ability to have excellent product marketing and profitability other than essential medicines is a problem that retail enterprises must face and solve in this round of medical reform, otherwise it is difficult to rely on essential medicine retailing alone. Profitable." Wang Shaohua believes, "However, although the medical reform will promote the integration of the retail industry and product structure adjustment, in any case, the retail industry will account for 30-40% of the entire pharmaceutical sales share."
There is no doubt that the final winner must be a prepared pharmaceutical retail enterprise. Unlike traditional pharmaceutical retail enterprises, Zhencheng Pharmaceutical has relied on e-commerce and has been engaged in grassroots medical institutions and retail services for many years. As the first B2B website in the country and the only B2B website with legal eligibility for drug trading in Zhejiang And service concepts are at the forefront.
With the construction of the primary medical and health service system, the medical reform will bring an increasingly huge medical terminal. Compared with the traditional retail model, e-commerce has undoubted advantages. It is precisely because of this that Wang Shaohua is "full of confidence" in Zhencheng's future.
Medical service industry: a new way
After the introduction of the medical reform plan, many analysts believe that due to the large amount of historical debts, the country is expected to invest heavily in community and rural medical infrastructure. A large proportion of the 850 billion yuan may be invested in this area. Therefore, there are good reasons for optimistic about the future development of basic medical devices.
However, unlike the good prospects for basic medical devices in the future, large medical equipment mainly for large hospitals is likely to have a completely different future. In this regard, an industry insider engaged in medical device financing and leasing business analysis: "With the deepening of the medical reform, the hospital will inevitably become more transparent and open in the procurement of large equipment and other aspects, and the audit system will become more stringent. These factors will be It will affect the speed of equipment replacement. At the same time, the procurement of equipment through bidding will make some small suppliers face the fate of being eliminated."
In the field of medical services, some industry insiders said in an interview with "Zheshang" that large public hospitals should diversify the community, cancel the drug addition rate, and separate medicines. At the same time, establish its own professional and characteristic diagnosis and treatment, and improve its own service level and profitability under the premise of fully utilizing the means allowed by the state to increase diagnosis and treatment fees and increase medical expenses.
At the same time, private hospitals take the path of specialization and specialization, which is the foundation of their survival and development.
Tongce Medical is the first public company to provide medical services listed in China and is the largest dental medical chain in China. Chairman Lu Jianming told reporters: "Medical reform will definitely play a certain role in stimulating medical consumption. Next, the general environment of the medical service industry will be better. For example, it will be more convenient to promote mergers and acquisitions in hospitals. The impact is more positive. "In fact, during the expansion of Tongce Medical, M&A is a very important way to expand."
For the development of private hospitals, Lu Jianming also gave his own suggestions: "Private hospitals still have a long way to go, especially comprehensive private hospitals. Compared with public hospitals, they are still in a weak position. But The market is segmented, and the key is how to position it."
However, Lu Jianming also said: "There is still a process in which the impact of medical reform is reflected in the real economy."
Shanghai Medical Device Industry Association